According to polls from the past week, nearly two-thirds want Johnson to resign.
It is too early to say.
He may be able to benefit from the fact that it is quite complicated to get rid of a Conservative British prime minister.
Prime ministers cannot be elected directly by the people. Brits vote for their local MP, and the leader the largest party in Parliament is the prime minister. The United Kingdom does not have to hold another parliamentary elections before 2024. Therefore, Johnson cannot be voted out by the average voter.
So why is all the talk about him getting a confidence vote?
Although the general public might not be able vote Johnson out of office at this time, Conservative lawmakers can. Rumours are circulating in Westminster that backbench Conservatives may have sent letters of no confidence Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee.
As Johnson was getting ready for Wednesday’s Prime Minister’s Questions, one Conservative MP abruptly defected, joining the Labour party. Christian Wakeford has been openly critical about Johnson in recent days. In a January 12 tweet, he called the scandal “embarrassing” and called it “embarrassing”. “How can you defend the indefensible?” You can’t!,” Wakeford remarked.
What does it mean? What is the 1922 Committee exactly?
This group consists of Conservative backbenchers, workaday legislators who are not ministers. Graham Brady has been the chairman of this group for many years.
According to Conservative party rules, MPs can send a confidential letter to the chair if they want to remove their leader. The chair keeps them secret and doesn’t reveal how many letters were submitted.
You can withdraw letters after they are received.
If 15% of Conservative legislators have sent letters, it triggers an vote of confidence among all Conservative legislators.
After Wakeford’s departure, there are 359 Conservative MPs. This means that it takes 54 letters for a no confidence vote to be triggered, and then 180 votes to remove Johnson from office.
Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May experienced this same agony in 2018. In 2018, MPs submitted enough letter to trigger a confidence motion in her. But when it came, she survived.
At least on paper, defeating the no-confidence vote can make a prime Minister stronger, as it means that another challenge will not be launched for twelve months. However, in practice, this process is often fatal even if the prime minster wins. May was thrown out of office only one year after she had defeated the party rebellion.
If Johnson loses the no-confidence vote of the Conservative party, who becomes Prime Minister?
The Conservative party would make the decision. It would not cause a new national electoral process — all current lawmakers would continue to serve.
Dominic Raab is currently Deputy Prime Minister. However, if Johnson is elected, he will not be prime minister.
Instead, the Conservative party will launch its own complicated process to select a new leader. Foreign secretary Liz Truss and Chancellor Rishi Sunak are expected to be top contenders.
What number of letters have you received?
Graham Brady is the only one who can answer these questions.
Brady’s long tenure as chair of the 1922 Committee is due to his discretion. He never divulges how many letters are in his safe.
The Westminster rumor mill is on high alert this week. According to new reports, Johnson loyalists tried to stop rebellion among the newer MPs in 2019, but it went horribly wrong. This led to new letters to 1922 Committee.
Is this the ‘Pork Pie Plot’?
Yes. The British press is rife with speculation that the MP for Rutland & Melton, Alicia Kearns, hosted a meeting of discontented Conservative backbenchers this week. The Melton Mowbray pork pie is a staple of this constituency. It’s likely an odd coincidence that “pork” is Cockney Rhyming Slag for “lie”. Boris Johnson is often accused of doing the same thing.
This report was contributed to by Sarah Dean in London and Niamh Kennedy in Dublin.