Daily picks, odds, win probabilities and advice – [Update News]

Welcome to our daily game probabilities page where you will find the win probability for each of the night’s games, as well as betting advice based on how those probabilities compare to marketplace odds. The game probabilities take into account each team’s strength (based on projected rosters), home ice and rest. Each team’s projected strength is based on the projected value of the players on its roster based on Game Score Valued Added (GSVA). Read more about GSVA here.

This page will automatically be updated every morning between 10:00 am and 12:00 pm. 

A few years back, I created a guide for those who are unfamiliar with the art of betting. It is still relevant today. It summarizes the fundamental tricks of the trade and is worth reading. While the model’s picks have been profitable in the past, there is no guarantee it will always be profitable – please don’t bet any money you’re uncomfortable losing. 

To optimize your betting strategy, I recommend plugging in each probability to a Kelly Criterion calculatorWith a Kelly multiplier 0.35 (full Kelly would be too aggressive for a game as varied as hockey). To make things easier for you, we will include recommended stake sizes. These will be based upon Bet MGM lines at the time of posting. If you see a different line the Kelly Criterion calculator linked above is still the go-to.