- Super Bowl odds: +750
- Chances of winning conference +325
The Bills’ chances of reaching Super Bowl LVII by opening the playoffs against New England is about 2.5 percent lower than if they were to face any of their wild-card counterparts. Although it may seem like a small percentage, remember that they would still need to win two more games in order to qualify for the trip to L.A.
Mac Jones’ play-action production is a key factor in the Bills’ success. NGS data shows that the rookie was thwarted in that area in their two previous meetings.
- vs. Bills: 33.3 comp. %, 3.5 ypa, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 9.7 passer rating, -22.1 comp. % over expected
- Rest of the NFL 78.6 comp. %, 9.8 ypa, 6 TDs, 2 INTs, 117.6 passer rating, +7.6 comp. % over expected
Jones’ dominance in play-action is not limited to the Bills. Their defense ranks first in league in completion percentage (48.4) and yards per attempt (5.7), passer rating (52.3), and completion percentage above expected (-10.4) per NGS.