Intro to Passing Score metric

We have a number of AI-driven tools that can help us get the job done. Here are the seven components that make up our new passing Score (listed in weight order in the formula).

(I) Expected points added over expected (EPAOE).46% of the passing score is accounted for by EPAOE. EPAOE is a measure of production relative to an anticipated value (using our new model of expected yards). It is the difference between the actual and predicted pass value before the ball is thrown. This calculation takes into account the probabilities of each pass outcome (e.g. completion, incompletion, or interception).

(II) Expected points Added (EPA).18% of passing score is attributable to EPA. EPA measures the success of a play relative to its current play, rather than counting yards gained.

(III). Completion Percentage Above Expected. (CPOE).This account for 11% of the passing score. CPOE is a derivative for completion probability. It measures the success of a throw in relation to its difficulty. Dropped passes are taken into account in the CPOE score.

(IV) Interception ProbabilityThis account for 11% of the passing score. INT Probability is a measure of the probability that a pass would be intercepted, if it’s thrown.

(V) Air Expected Points Added to (Air EPA).This account for 7 percent the passing score. Air EPA equals the value of a catch and the expected yards a receiver will gain. Air EPA represents the best reward for a pass that is within the quarterback’s control.

(VI) Expected Air EPA (xAir EPA)7 percent of the passing score is accounted for by xAir EPA. xAir EPA equals the value of a complete (plus expected YAC), in relation to the likelihood that a completion will occur (e.g. completion probability).

(VII) Win Probability, (WP).This is an aggregation weight, and is not a part of the model. For any given play, the offense’s pre-snap victory probability is used as a weight for the passing score formula. Closer to 50% win probability equals one and closer towards 10 percent or 90% equals 0.6.